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Record W3005240719 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2002.02054

Robust Boosting for Regression Problems

2020· preprint· en· W3005240719 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenuearXiv (Cornell University) · 2020
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicAdvanced Statistical Methods and Models
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsBoosting (machine learning)OverfittingGradient boostingOutlierComputer scienceResidualMathematicsRobustness (evolution)Parametric statisticsEstimatorFeature selectionMachine learningAlgorithmArtificial intelligenceMathematical optimizationStatistics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Gradient boosting algorithms construct a regression predictor using a linear combination of ``base learners''. Boosting also offers an approach to obtaining robust non-parametric regression estimators that are scalable to applications with many explanatory variables. The robust boosting algorithm is based on a two-stage approach, similar to what is done for robust linear regression: it first minimizes a robust residual scale estimator, and then improves it by optimizing a bounded loss function. Unlike previous robust boosting proposals this approach does not require computing an ad-hoc residual scale estimator in each boosting iteration. Since the loss functions involved in this robust boosting algorithm are typically non-convex, a reliable initialization step is required, such as an L1 regression tree, which is also fast to compute. A robust variable importance measure can also be calculated via a permutation procedure. Thorough simulation studies and several data analyses show that, when no atypical observations are present, the robust boosting approach works as well as the standard gradient boosting with a squared loss. Furthermore, when the data contain outliers, the robust boosting estimator outperforms the alternatives in terms of prediction error and variable selection accuracy.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.328
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.536
GPT teacher head0.325
Teacher spread0.211 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it