Predicting the duration of surgery and procedures in a veterinary referral center
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the ability of veterinary personnel to predict the duration of surgery and associated procedures in a referral center. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SAMPLE POPULATION: Experienced surgeons (ES; n = 2, board certified for 10+ years), inexperienced surgeons (IS; n = 2, residency completed, not board certified), anesthesia animal health technicians (AAHT; n = 3) and surgery animal health technicians (SAHT; n = 2). METHODS: Surgeons and technicians predicted surgery duration (skin incision to final stitch/staple) and total procedure duration (TPD; from induction of anesthesia to extubation). Predictions were compared to actual durations with Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement (accuracy) as indicated by bias (mean of observed differences) and limits of agreement (LOA; bias ±1.96 SD). RESULTS: All groups underestimated TPD. Experienced surgeons predicted their own TPD more accurately (bias -20.1 ± 30.4 minutes [±SD]) and more consistently (narrower LOA) than IS for their own TPD (-40.1 ± 41.0 minutes). Experienced surgeon TPD predictions by AAHT were more accurate than those by ES (bias -16.0 ± 28.9 minutes, LOA 5% narrower). Inexperienced surgeon TPD predictions by AAHT were less consistent (wider LOA) than those by IS. Own surgery duration predictions by surgeons were similar in magnitude (ES surgery duration [ESSD] 8.3 ± 18.3, IS surgery duration [ISSD] surgery duration -7.9 ± 27.2 minutes), with greater consistency by ES (LOA 30% narrower). Anesthesia animal health technician predictions were similar to those of surgeons (ESSD 3.0 ± 19.3, ISSD -9.0 ± 28.7 minutes). Surgery animal health technician predictions were similar to those of AAHT for ESSD but were less accurate for ISSD. CONCLUSION: Surgery duration was more accurately predicted than TPD, which was most accurately predicted by anesthesia technicians. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Surgical procedure planning should involve personnel best able to predict total procedure durations; in this case, anesthesia technicians. Accurate planning will promote efficient operating room and personnel use.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".