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Record W3007051974 · doi:10.5539/mas.v14n3p1

Electric Vehicle Sales Catastrophe Averted (?)

2020· article· en· W3007051974 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Timothy Sands

Bibliographic record

VenueModern Applied Science · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsExtrapolationContext (archaeology)EconometricsComputer scienceParametric statisticsTime derivativeDerivative (finance)Applied mathematicsMathematicsEconomicsStatisticsMathematical analysisFinancial economicsGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The literature indicates catastrophic potential for electric vehicles around the year 2019. Amidst the predicted time, this research revisits the prequel analysis with state-of-the-art deterministic artificial intelligence methodologies to posit the potential for catastrophe in the upcoming year. The methodology has proven effective with motion mechanics, electrodynamics, and even financial analysis of sales date in the prequels, since the model commences with simple regression for mathematical model formulation asserting the certainty equivalence principle, followed by derivative modeling and eventually catastrophe analysis of the derivative models. The prequel analysis paradigms are retained in this sequel utilizing both monthly and cumulative sales data in simple least squares algorithms for predictive curve fitting to establish context and help correctly model the mathematical degree of the data. Extrapolation by forward time-propagation established predictions for models of various mathematical degrees (again merely for context). Next, catastrophe analysis (of the derivative form) revealed stable and unstable equilibrium points and then parametric variation was induced to evaluate the resulting behavior of the derivative models, highlighting the importance of the coefficient of the second order term (the acceleration or change of rate of sales as a forcing function). While the forcing function typically embodies both gasoline prices and vehicle charging proliferation, the relative stability of gas prices together with factors such as vehicle-to-grid elevate charging-station proliferation as the primary forcing function of slow-dynamics in catastrophe analysis. This brief manuscript revisits the prequel research to test the validity of those conclusions and with the benefit of the passage of time, reveal how well the mathematical modeling predicted real behavior. The main finding is the predicted potential catastrophe is less likely to occur and recommendations are made to insure catastrophe is averted.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.006
Threshold uncertainty score0.020

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.019
GPT teacher head0.249
Teacher spread0.231 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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