A27 INCREASING INCIDENCE OF COLORECTAL CANCER IN ADULTS UNDER AGE OF 50 IN ALBERTA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Overall colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence has been decreasing in Canada since the early 2000s, most likely due to increased use of colorectal cancer screening for adults over the age of 50. However, the incidence of CRC may be rising in adults younger than age 50 both in Canada and the USA. The American Cancer Society in 2018 issued a qualified recommendation that people with an average risk of CRC should start screening at age 45. The burden of CRC in adults under the age of 50 is not well-characterized in Alberta. Aims The aim of this study is to determine the incidence trends in colorectal cancer in adults under the age of 50 compared to those over the age of 50 in Alberta. Methods This cohort study determined the incidence of colorectal cancer in patients under the age of 50 compared to those over the age of 50 reported to the Alberta Cancer Registry (ACR) from 2010 to 2017. Annualized percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rate were estimated using the Joinpoint Regression Program 4.7.0.0 (Nation Cancer Institute). APCs in relative risk of CRC in different age groups compared to the 50–74 age group were also estimated in the same methodology. Results From 2010 to 2017 there were 17167 incident cases of colorectal cancer. Of these, 92% were in adults over the age of 50 while 8% were in those under the age of 50. For adults under the age of 50, incidence of CRC increased from 6 to 7.2 per 100,000 with a mean annual percentage change of 2.58% between 2010 and 2017. This is in contrast to adults over the age of 50, where the incidence of CRC decreased from 170 to 128 per 100,000 with a mean annual percentage change of -1.64% from 2010 to 2015 and -9.42% from 2015 to 2017. Compared to the 50–74 age group, the average relative risk of CRC in the 46–49 age group is 0.26 with an annual increase of 0.55%; while in the 40–45 age group the average relative risk of CRC is 0.15 with an annual increase of 2.61%. Conclusions Similar to national incidence trends, the incidence of CRC in adults under the age of 50 is increasing in Alberta. Although the overall incidence in this population is relatively low, suspicion of CRC in adults under age 50 can help prevent delays in diagnosis. Incidence of colorectal cancer in Alberta for adults under the age of 50 increased from 6 to 7.2 per 100,000 with a mean annual percentage change of 2.58% between 2010 and 2017. Funding Agencies None
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".