Rainfall and nest site competition delay Mountain Bluebird and Tree Swallow breeding but do not impact productivity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Optimizing breeding phenology, an important aspect of fitness, is complex for migratory species as they must make key timing decisions early, and remotely, from breeding sites. We examined the role of weather (locally and cross-seasonally), cavity availability, and competitive exclusion in determining among-year variation in breeding phenology over 17 yr for 2 migratory, cavity-nesting birds: Mountain Bluebirds (Sialia currucoides; n = 462 nests) and Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor; n = 572) using natural tree cavities in British Columbia, Canada. We assessed weather effects within the winter and migratory range and at our study sites. We quantified competition as the proportion of cavities occupied by European Starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) (for both species) and Mountain Bluebirds (for Tree Swallow only) in each year. For 229 bluebird and 177 swallow nests with known fates, we tested whether late years resulted in reduced productivity. Although the effects were small, heavy rainfall and strong diurnal westerly winds during migration were associated with breeding delays for Mountain Bluebirds. However, cavity availability (earlier breeding with increases) had a 5–8 × greater effect on timing than migratory conditions. There was no evidence that starling competition delayed bluebirds. In Tree Swallows, greater local daily rainfall was associated with delayed breeding, as was starling abundance (the effect of starlings was 1.4 × smaller than that of rainfall). Neither bluebird abundance nor cavity availability changed swallow phenology. Neither species showed reduced productivity in late breeding years. In both species, individuals that bred late relative to conspecifics within-year had smaller clutches and greater probability of nest failure. We conclude that breeding ground conditions, particularly cavity limitation and local rainfall (for swallows), are important drivers of breeding phenology for our focal species, but that the productivity cost of late years, at least for Tree Swallows, is minimal.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".