The Future of US Agricultural and Rural Development Policy: WHERE DO THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES STAND?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Agricultural policy issues play an outsized role in the race for the presidency if only because the primary season begins in Iowa, where corn is king, and other rural states such as New Hampshire and South Carolina. On a bipartisan basis, almost every candidate, including President Donald Trump, supports current price and income-support policies, the federal crop insurance program, and soil and other conservation initiatives that direct substantial taxpayer-funded payments to farm businesses. The major difference is that most of the Democratic candidates seek to shift such payments toward small and medium-sized farms and away from large-scale agribusiness farms.\nThe candidates for the Democratic Party’s nomination do differ on agricultural trade policy. Mayor Mike Bloomberg is the only candidate whose support for free trade is unequivocal. Some candidates, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have supported some trade agreements with other countries (e.g., the recent US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) but would only support further trade agreements if they imposed implausibly stringent conditions regarding environmental, worker-safety, and other regulations in the countries with which the agreements are signed. Sen. Bernie Sanders seems generally opposed to any trade agreements and in this area seems to have more in common with President Trump, who has been willing to arbitrarily disrupt US access to overseas markets for agricultural products in his trade and foreign policy initiatives.\nFinally, initiatives to address climate change through reducing carbon emissions are a common theme among all the Democratic candidates. Several, including Biden, Sanders, and Warren, have essentially adopted the Green New Deal as their climate change initiative while, somewhat inconsistently given ethanol’s impacts on carbon emissions, supporting the renewable fuels standards for ethanol and other biofuels. Bloomberg is a notable exception, viewing biofuels as problematic but supporting substantial reductions in the use of carbon fuel. In stark contrast, President Trump has aggressively terminated many of the Obama administration’s climate change initiatives and, at least ostensibly, viewed climate change as of no concern for his administration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".