Direct and indirect effects of climate change‐amplified pulse heat stress events on coral reef fish communities
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change-amplified temperature anomalies pose an imminent threat to coral reef ecosystems. While much focus has been placed on the effects of heat stress on scleractinian corals-including bleaching, mortality, and loss of reef structural complexity-and many studies have documented changes to reef fish communities arising indirectly from shifts in benthic composition, the direct impacts of heat stress on reef fish are much less well understood. Here, we quantify the direct and indirect effects of heat stress on reef fishes, using underwater visual censuses of coral reef fish communities conducted before, during, and after the 2015-2016 El Niño-induced global coral bleaching event. Surveys took place at the epicenter of this event, at 16 sites on Kiritimati (Republic of Kiribati; central equatorial Pacific) spanning across a gradient of local human disturbance. We expected that heat stress would have both direct and indirect negative effects on the reef fish community, with direct effects resulting from physiological stress during the event and indirect effects manifesting afterward as a consequence of coral mortality, and that the ability of fish communities to recover following the heat stress would depend on levels of local human disturbance. We found that total reef fish biomass and abundance declined by >50% during heat stress, likely as a result of vertical migration of fish to cooler waters. One year after the cessation of heat stress, however, total biomass, abundance, and species richness had recovered to, or even exceeded, pre-heat stress levels. However, the biomass of corallivores declined by over 70% following severe coral loss, and reefs exposed to higher levels of local human disturbance showed impaired recovery following the heat stress. These findings enhance understanding of the projected impacts of climate change-associated marine heatwaves on reef fishes, and highlight the interacting effects of local and global stressors on this vital component of coral reef ecosystems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".