Using Historical Data for Retrospective Prediction of Rainfall In the Midwest
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is an important food-producing region in the United States and Canada. Climate variability and water availability affect crops production in this region. Past climate data have been recorded at various locations in the basin over a period of ten years. We use the data for a retrospective prediction of rainfall. As the dimension of the data is relatively large, a sufficient dimension reduction approach is used to reduce the dimensionality of the data while preserving the regression information pertinent to rainfall. We use the nascent dimension reduction methodology called Minimum Average Deviance Estimation or MADE to reduce the dimensionality of the climate data. Since MADE is still a tool in development, we explored two of its intrinsic prediction methods and compared them to the Nadaraya-Watson prediction approach by a cross-validation. A parallel implementation of MADE and its prediction methods on a high performance computer were carried out. A performance study was performed along with the application of the best prediction method to the MRB climate data.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it