Reconstructing summer upper-level flow in the northern Rocky Mountains using an alpine larch tree-ring chronology
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mid-latitude mesoscale weather during the climatological summer is strongly influenced by fluctuations in synoptic-scale circulation patterns. Previous research has linked Arctic amplification to alterations in summer synoptic climatology, leading to more extreme weather events in the mid-latitudes. In this study, seasonal (JJA) upper-level (500 hPa) atmospheric flow is reconstructed in the mid-latitudes using an alpine larch Larix lyallii Parl. tree-ring chronology sampled from western Montana. Significant relationships were found between alpine larch radial growth and upper-level flow patterns derived from the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset (1979-2015). Meridional and zonal flows that manifest in ridging are associated with enhanced radial growth of alpine larch (i.e. meridional flow west [r = 0.504, p = 0.001] and zonal flow north [r = 0.642, p < 0.001] of the study site). Meridional and zonal flows associated with troughing result in decreased radial growth (i.e. meridional flow east [r = -0.497, p = 0.001] and zonal flow south [r = -0.584, p < 0.001] of the study site). Using the leave-one-out method, a linear regression model was calibrated and verified between a principal component analysis score derived from measurements of upper-level flow in western North America and alpine larch tree growth. The 444 yr climate reconstruction of summer 500 hPa flow suggests that ridging is becoming more intense over the western United States and Canada since the 1980s.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it