Effects of Technological Development and Electricity Price Reductions on Adoption of Residential Heat Pumps in Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Home heating accounts for most of residential energy use in Canada. While natural gas, oil-fired furnaces, and electric resistance are the dominant heating system choices, heat pumps have become a viable alternative. Heat pumps with lower minimum operating temperatures and better performance are increasing both their effectiveness and their number of hours of useful service. In this study, we apply System Dynamics to analyze the effects of technological development on the rate at which homeowners adopt residential air source heat pumps. We test the effects of low, moderate and high rates of technological development, as well as reduced electricity and carbon pricing on the predicted rate of adoption in Ontario. From the perspective of the use stage in life cycle assessment, we estimate energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions. We predict that using heat pumps will substantially reduce overall energy consumption, and in Ontario, where electricity is generated with little use of fossil fuels, it will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".