Stand breakdown and surface fuel accumulation due to spruce budworm (<i>Choristoneura fumiferana</i>) defoliation in the boreal mixedwood forest of central Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) defoliation has been shown to increase the likelihood of large forest fires in central Canada. However, the time frame of heightened risk based on the duration of spruce budworm defoliation has not yet been quantified. In this article, we document the extent of stand breakdown and surface fuel accumulation after a period of spruce budworm defoliation that occurred between 1972 and 1976. Data on stand characteristics were derived from previous studies at three different locations in the boreal mixedwood forests of central Canada: Aubinadong (B.J. Stocks. 1987. For. Chron. 63: 8–14), Gogama, and Gowganda in Ontario. Stand breakdown was measured using a series of transects set in plots 7 years following aerially mapped defoliation (1977–1983). Results show that during the 4 years following 5 years of defoliation, crown breakage, a typical symptom of defoliation, increased by nearly 200%, and surface fuel increased by 145% from predisturbance levels. The high correlation between crown breakage and surface fuels linked defoliation to fuel buildup. We begin to solve the challenge of measuring fuel structure over the expansive scale of spruce budworm outbreaks by quantifying the relationship among stand breakdown, time since the end of defoliation, and the duration of defoliation so that the expected fuel structure can be modelled from annual defoliation surveys.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".