Satellite-based time series land cover and change information to map forest area consistent with national and international reporting requirements
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Forests are dynamic ecosystems, subject to both natural and anthropogenic agents of change. Wildfire, harvesting and other human activities alter the tree-covered area present in forests. From national and international reporting perspectives, forests include areas currently treed, as well as those disturbed forest areas that are not currently treed but will be, given time for regeneration and the advancement of natural successional processes. As a consequence, forest area can be depicted at a particular point in time, informed by a retrospective temporal context. Using time series of Landsat imagery, annual land cover maps can be generated that are informed by knowledge of past disturbance history (such as wildfire and harvesting). In this research, we use over three decades of annual land cover data generated from Landsat time series to generate a spatially explicit estimate of the forest area of Canada in 2010. We demonstrate how land cover and disturbance information can be combined to map the area of ‘forest’, as defined by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), within Canada’s 650 Mha of forested ecozones. Following this approach, we estimated Canada’s total forest area in 2010 to be 354.5 Mha. This estimate includes 324.5 Mha of current forest cover in 2010, plus an additional 33.2 Mha (or 9.4 per cent) of temporally informed forest area where tree cover had been temporarily lost due to fire or harvest, less 3.3 Mha that were removed to meet a definitional minimum size (0.5 ha) for contiguous forest area. Using Canada’s National Forest Inventory (NFI) as an independent reference source, the spatial agreement between the two estimates of forest area was ~84 per cent overall. Aspatially, the total area of the Landsat-derived estimate of 2010 forest area and the NFI baseline estimates differed by only 3 per cent, with notable regional differences in the wetland-dominated Hudson Plains Ecozone. Satellite-derived time series land cover and change information enable spatially explicit depictions of forest area (distinct from representations of forest cover) in a robust and transparent fashion, producing information of value to science, management and reporting information needs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".