Projected Wind Impact on Abies balsamea (Balsam fir)-Dominated Stands in New Brunswick (Canada) Based on Remote Sensing and Regional Modelling of Climate and Tree Species Distribution
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The paper describes the development of predictive equations of windthrow for five tree species based on remote sensing of wind-affected stands in southwestern New Brunswick (NB). The data characterises forest conditions before, during and after the passing of extratropical cyclone Arthur, July 4–5, 2014. The five-variable logistic function developed for balsam fir (bF) was validated against remote-sensing-acquired windthrow data for bF-stands affected by the Christmas Mountains windthrow event of November 7, 1994. In general, the prediction of windthrow in the area agreed fairly well with the windthrow sites identified by photogrammetry. The occurrence of windthrow in the Christmas Mountains was prominent in areas with shallow soils and prone to localised accelerations in mean and turbulent airflow. The windthrow function for bF was subsequently used to examine the future impact of windthrow under two climate scenarios (RCP’s 4.5 and 8.5) and species response to local changes anticipated with global climate change, particularly with respect to growing degree-days and soil moisture. Under climate change, future windthrow in bF stands (2006–2100) is projected to be modified as the species withdraws from the high-elevation areas and NB as a whole, as the climate progressively warms and precipitation increases, causing the growing environment of bF to deteriorate.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it