Trajectories of suicide attempts from early adolescence to emerging adulthood: prospective 11-year follow-up of a Canadian cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Suicide is a leading cause of mortality in youth, yet the course of suicide attempts is poorly documented. We explored the vulnerable transition from adolescence to emerging adulthood to identify group trajectories and risk factors. METHODS: The National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth is a prospective representative cohort of Canadian children. We followed participants aged 7-11 years in 1994-95 to age 23 (2008-09). We modelled self-reported past-year suicide attempts (ages 12 to 23 years) using growth mixture models. We analysed risk factors from self- and parent-report questionnaires at pre-adolescence (ages 10-11) and early adolescence (ages 12-13) using multinomial logistic regressions. Analyses were adjusted for sample non-response and attrition. RESULTS: In 2233 participants answering questions on teen and adult suicide attempts, we identified three trajectories: never attempted (96.0%), adolescence-limited (2.0%) and persisting into adulthood (2.0%). Adolescent girls aged 12-13 with depression/anxiety symptoms, and with mothers experiencing depression had higher risks of adolescence-limited than never-attempted [relative risk RR 9.27 (95% confidence interval: 1.73-49.82); 2.03 (1.02-3.32), for each standard deviation increase; 1.07 (1.00-1.15); respectively]. Preteen ADHD symptoms increased the risk of attempts persisting into adulthood as compared to never-attempted [RR 2.05 (1.29-3.28) for each standard deviation increase]. Suicide death of schoolmate/acquaintance increased risks of an adulthood trajectory as compared to never-attempted and adolescence-limited [RR 8.41 (3.04-23.27) and 6.63 (1.29-34.06), respectively]. CONCLUSION: In half the participants attempting suicide, attempts continued into adulthood. We stress the need for preventive strategies in early adolescence and differential clinical/educational interventions as identified for each trajectory.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".