Is Malaria an Important Cause of Death among Adults?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A long-held assumption has been that nearly all malaria deaths in high-transmission areas are of children younger than 5 years and pregnant women. Most global malaria mortality estimates incorporate this assumption in their calculations. In 2010, the Indian Million Death Study, which assigns cause of death by verbal autopsy (VA), challenged the reigning perception, producing a U-shaped mortality age curve, with rates rising after age 45 years in areas of India with substantial malaria transmission. Similar patterns are seen in Africa in the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH) network, also relying on VA. Whether these results are accurate or are misidentified deaths can be resolved by improving the evidence for assigning causes for adult acute infectious deaths in high malaria transmission areas. The options for doing so include improving the accuracy of VA and adding postmortem biological evidence, steps we believe should be initiated without delay.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".