Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
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No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Abstract
Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.
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The record
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Topic
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Field
- Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- Universität HamburgMax-Planck-GesellschaftNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaKnut och Alice Wallenbergs StiftelseCanadian Meteorological and Oceanographic SocietyBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftNational Science FoundationHorizon 2020 Framework ProgrammeNorges ForskningsrådCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganisationDepartment for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK GovernmentFonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRSSeventh Framework ProgrammeMet OfficeU.S. Department of EnergyBiological and Environmental ResearchDepartment for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK GovernmentNational Center for Atmospheric Research
- Keywords
- Sea iceArcticClimatologyArctic ice packThe arcticEnvironmental scienceGeologyOceanography
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes