Late Quaternary habitat suitability models for chimpanzees ( <i>Pan troglodytes</i> ) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Paleoclimate reconstructions have enhanced our understanding of how past climates may have shaped present-day biodiversity. We hypothesize that habitat stability in historical Afrotropical refugia played a major role in the habitat suitability and persistence of chimpanzees ( Pan troglodytes ) during the late Quaternary. We aimed to build a dynamic model of changing habitat suitability for chimpanzees at fine spatio-temporal scales to provide a new resource for understanding their ecology, behaviour and evolution. Location Afrotropics. Taxon Chimpanzee ( Pan troglodytes ), including all four subspecies ( P. t. verus, P. t. ellioti, P. t. troglodytes, P. t. schweinfurthii ). Methods We used downscaled bioclimatic variables representing monthly temperature and precipitation estimates, historical human population density data and an extensive database of georeferenced presence points to infer chimpanzee habitat suitability at 62 paleoclimatic time periods across the Afrotropics based on ensemble species distribution models. We mapped habitat stability over time using an approach that accounts for dispersal between time periods, and compared our modelled stability estimates to existing knowledge of Afrotropical refugia. Our models cover a spatial resolution of 0.0467 degrees (approximately 5.19 km 2 grid cells) and a temporal resolution of every 1,000–4,000 years dating back to the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP). Results Our results show high habitat stability concordant with known historical forest refugia across Africa, but suggest that their extents are underestimated for chimpanzees. We provide the first fine-grained dynamic map of historical chimpanzee habitat suitability since the Last Interglacial which is suspected to have influenced a number of ecological-evolutionary processes, such as the emergence of complex patterns of behavioural and genetic diversity. Main Conclusions We provide a novel resource that can be used to reveal spatio-temporally explicit insights into the role of refugia in determining chimpanzee behavioural, ecological and genetic diversity. This methodology can be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic areas where sufficient data are available.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".