Obesity and weight loss are inversely related to mortality and cardiovascular outcome in prediabetes and type 2 diabetes: data from the ORIGIN trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: The association of body weight and weight change with mortality and cardiovascular (CV) outcome in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is not clearly established. We assessed the relationship between weight, weight change, and outcomes in patients with established CV risk factors and type 2 DM or pre-diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 521 participants from the ORIGIN trial were grouped in BMI categories of low body weight [body mass index (BMI) < 22 kg/m2] normal (22-24.9), overweight (25-29.9), obesity Grades 1-3 (30-34.9, 35-39.9, ≥40 kg/m2, respectively). Outcome variables included total and CV mortality and composite outcomes of CV death, non-fatal stroke, or myocardial infarction plus revascularization or heart failure hospitalization. Follow-up was 6.2 years (interquartile range 5.8-6.7 years). After multivariable adjustment, lowest risks were seen in patients with overweight and mild obesity for total mortality [overweight: hazard ratio (HR) 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-0.91); obesity Grade 1: HR 0.82 (0.71-0.95), both P < 0.01)] and CV mortality [overweight: HR 0.79 (0.66-0.94); obesity Grade 1: 0.79 (0.65-0.95), all compared to patients with normal BMI, P < 0.05]. Obesity of any severity was not associated with higher mortality. Low body weight was related to higher mortality [HR 1.28 (1.02-1.61); CV mortality: HR 1.34 (1.01-1.79), P < 0.05]. A continued 2-year weight loss was associated with higher risk of mortality [HR 1.32 (1.18-1.46), P < 0.0001] and CV mortality [HR 1.18 (1.02-1.35), compared to patients without weight loss, P < 0.05]. In turn, weight gain was not related to any adverse outcome. CONCLUSION: Obesity in patients with DM or pre-diabetes and CV risk profile was not associated with higher mortality or adverse CV outcome. The lowest mortality risk was seen in patients with overweight and moderate obesity (BMI 25-35 kg/m2). Weight loss was an independent risk factor for higher mortality compared to no weight loss.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".