Quarantine vs Social Consciousness: A Prediction to Control COVID-19 Infection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The world is now in an emergency of preventing the drastic spread of COVID-19. After the infection was first reported in December 2019, almost every country did not pay attention to this highly contaminated disease and failed to react swiftly. Now the whole planet is in an vulnerable state, resulting to increase the mortality rate and facing difficulties in all socio-economic aspects. That is why we have the urge to develop an efficient mathematical model (quarantine) based on social consciousness to control the epidemic. Methods: This is a quarantine mathematical model. The outcome of the system is dependent on social consciousness. We have calculated the awareness level by considering various socio-economic factor of each country. In our model, the parameters are Education Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population density, high literacy and stable economy. To maximize the efficiency of the model, it has to be implemented in initial stage. However, strictapplication of the method in vigorous stage of epidemic will also bring a satisfactory outcome. Results: In Spain, quarantine was effected on March 14, 2020. Spain experienced an increase in reported cases for 13 days of quarantine enforcement and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decrease with small fluctuation. Government ensured the social isolation through quarantine. After imposition of a quarantine on March 9, 2020 in Italy, within 13 days of lock-down, the maximum number of infection started to decrease. Similar results observed in France. Higher social consciousness would decrease the number of infected population dramatically while minimal or lower awareness will do a outburst. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system which yields to reduce the death rate and will ensure social and economic stability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".