Prompt recognition of infectious pulmonary tuberculosis is critical to achieving elimination goals: a retrospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: All pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases are presumed to be infectious to some degree. This spectrum of infectiousness is independently described by both the acid-fast bacilli smear and radiographic findings. Smear-positive patients with chest radiographic findings that are typical for adult-type PTB are believed to be most infectious. HYPOTHESIS: Characterisation of the presumed most infectious PTB case is possible by reference to readily available clinical features and laboratory results. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adult, culture-positive PTB cases (151 smear-positive; 162 smear-negative) diagnosed between 1 January 2013 and 30 April 2017 in Canada. We describe cases according to demographic, clinical and laboratory features. We use multivariable multinomial logistic regression to estimate the relative risk ratio (RRR) with 95% CI of features associated with an outcome of smear-positive PTB, characterised by 'typical' chest radiograph findings. RESULTS: Being Canadian-born, symptomatic, having a subacute duration of symptoms and broad-spectrum antibiotic prescriptions were all more commonly associated with smear-positive than smear-negative disease (36% vs 20%; 95% vs 63%; 88% vs 54%; and 59% vs 28%, respectively). After combining smear status and radiographic features, we show that smear-positive patients with typical chest radiographs were younger, had a longer duration of symptoms (RRR 2.41; 95% CI 1.01 to 5.74 and 2.93; 95% CI 1.20 to 7.11, respectively) and were less likely to be foreign-born, or have a moderate to high-risk factor for reactivation (RRR 0.40; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.92 and 0.18; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.71, respectively) compared with smear-negative patients with atypical chest radiograph findings. CONCLUSION: A clear picture of the presumed most infectious PTB case emerges from available historical and laboratory information; vigilance for this presentation by front-line providers will support elimination strategies aimed at reducing transmission.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".