MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W3030344239 · doi:10.1177/2515245920902370

Average Power: A Cautionary Note

2020· article· en· W3030344239 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueAdvances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicMeta-analysis and systematic reviews
Canadian institutionsKellogg's (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsReplication (statistics)Power (physics)StatisticsPoint estimationPoint (geometry)Interval (graph theory)EconometricsSet (abstract data type)Confidence intervalComputer scienceStatistical powerMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Replication is an important contemporary issue in psychological research, and there is great interest in ways of assessing replicability, in particular, retrospectively via prior studies. The average power of a set of prior studies is a quantity that has attracted considerable attention for this purpose, and techniques to estimate this quantity via a meta-analytic approach have recently been proposed. In this article, we have two aims. First, we clarify the nature of average power and its implications for replicability. We explain that average power is not relevant to the replicability of actual prospective replication studies. Instead, it relates to efforts in the history of science to catalogue the power of prior studies. Second, we evaluate the statistical properties of point estimates and interval estimates of average power obtained via the meta-analytic approach. We find that point estimates of average power are too variable and inaccurate for use in application. We also find that the width of interval estimates of average power depends on the corresponding point estimates; consequently, the width of an interval estimate of average power cannot serve as an independent measure of the precision of the point estimate. Our findings resolve a seeming puzzle posed by three estimates of the average power of the power-posing literature obtained via the meta-analytic approach.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.193
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.227
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Other design · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.900
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.1930.227
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.005
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.003
Open science0.0020.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.679
GPT teacher head0.718
Teacher spread0.039 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it