Effect of alcohol prohibition on liver cirrhosis mortality rates in Canada from 1901 to 1956: A time‐series analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: The extent to which alcohol consumption in Canada was affected by alcohol prohibition in the early 20th century remains unclear. Since there is a dearth of data on consumption during this time, we estimated the effect of alcohol prohibition on alcohol consumption, as measured by changes in liver cirrhosis mortality rates in Canada. DESIGN AND METHODS: Annual liver cirrhosis mortality data were obtained for 1901 to 1956 for the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Saskatchewan. Changes in death rates were assessed, by province, using autoregressive integrated moving average models. Results were pooled across provinces using a fixed effects meta-analysis. A secondary fixed effects meta-analysis was performed which only included provinces with data for before, during and after prohibition, and excluded provinces with data only beginning during prohibition. RESULTS: Prohibition was associated with a statistically significant decrease in liver cirrhosis death rates only in Nova Scotia (P = 0.01). Pooling of provincial results indicated that prohibition resulted in 0.39 (95% confidence interval 0.06, 0.72; P = 0.02) fewer liver cirrhosis deaths per 100 000 people. In the restricted meta-analysis, prohibition resulted in 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.18, 1.12; P < 0.01) fewer liver cirrhosis deaths per 100 000 people. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Although alcohol prohibition in Canada did not eliminate alcohol consumption, our findings suggest that prohibition was associated with reduced consumption, as evidenced by a reduction in liver cirrhosis mortality rates. Further, it's important to reflect on alcohol's history in Canada and use those policy lessons to guide the construction of effective cannabis legislation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".