Ice‐Wedge Evidence of Holocene Winter Warming in the Canadian Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Arctic summer temperatures mostly cooled over the last ~7 kyr, owing to decreasing summer insolation. However, knowledge of the winter season is limited in the Arctic paleoclimate literature. Here we develop a composite record of δ18O from ice wedges—a winter precipitation archive—to reconstruct changes in winter climate in the northwestern Canadian Arctic since ~7.4 kyr b2k. Our record shows a long‐term δ18O enrichment (+(0.14 ± 0.10)‰ kyr−1), suggesting winter temperatures increased since the mid‐Holocene, a finding that is corroborated by reconstructions from the Siberian Arctic. Winter warming over the last ~7 kyr is consistent with increasing winter insolation and greenhouse gas forcing. This study provides some of the first insights on the sensitivity of winter temperatures in the Canadian Arctic to past, and potentially future, climate forcings, and contributes to a more seasonally holistic understanding of the Arctic system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".