Cango Lyec (Healing the Elephant): HIV incidence in post-conflict Northern Uganda
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Civil war in Northern Uganda resulted in widespread atrocities, human rights violations, and death, and caused millions to flee to internally displaced persons camps. War-related traumas combined with difficulties accessing HIV prevention and health services has led to extreme HIV-related vulnerability among conflict-affected people who survived the war. Objectives were to (1) determine HIV incidence among conflict-affected people in Northern Uganda and (2) identify vulnerabilities associated with HIV infection. METHODS: The Cango Lyec (Healing the Elephant) Project is a prospective cohort involving conflict-affected populations in three districts in Northern Uganda. In 2011, eight randomly selected communities were mapped, and a census was conducted. Consenting participants aged 13-49 years were followed over three rounds of follow-up. Longitudinal data collected included war-related experiences, sexual vulnerabilities, and sociodemographics. Blood samples were tested for HIV-1 at baseline and each 12-month follow-up. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models determined factors associated with HIV incidence. FINDINGS: Overall, 1920 baseline HIV-negative participants with at least one follow-up contributed 3877 person-years (py) for analysis. Thirty-nine (23 female, 16 male) participants contracted HIV during follow-up. Age- and gender-standardised HIV incidence rate was 10•2 per 1000py (95%CI: 7•2-14•0). Stratified by sex, the age-adjusted HIV incidence was 11•0 per 1000py (95%CI: 6•9-16•6) among women and 9•4 per 1000py (95%CI: 5•3-15•3) among men. Adjusting for confounders, factors associated with risk of HIV included: having been abducted (HR: 3•70; 95%CI: 1•87-7•34), experiencing ≥12 war-related traumatic events (HR: 2•91 95%CI: 1•28-6•60), suicide ideation (HR: 2•83; 95%CI: 1•00-8•03), having ≥2 sexual partners (HR: 4•68; 95%CI: 1•36-16•05), inconsistent condom use (HR: 6•75; 95%CI: 2•49-18•29), and self-reported genital ulcers (HR: 4•39; 95%CI: 2•04-9•45). INTERPRETATION: Conflict-affected participants who had experienced abduction and multiple traumas during the war were at greater risk of HIV infection. Trauma-informed HIV prevention and treatment services, and culturally-safe mental health initiatives, are urgent for Northern Uganda.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".