Incidence and factors associated with discontinuation of opioid agonist therapy among people who inject drugs in Australia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To estimate incidence and predictors of opioid agonist therapy (OAT) discontinuation in a national cohort of people who inject drugs (PWID). DESIGN AND SETTING: Annually repeated cross-sectional serosurveillance among PWID attending ~50 needle-syringe programmes across Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Between 1995 and 2018, 2651 PWID who reported current OAT and had subsequent survey participation completed 6739 surveys. Respondents were followed over 11 984 person-years of observation (PYO). Respondents were predominantly male (60%), and the median age was 34 years. Heroin was the most commonly reported drug last injected (46%), and methadone was the most commonly prescribed OAT (77%). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was discontinuation of OAT (methadone, buprenorphine or buprenorphine-naloxone). Among respondents who reported current OAT, those who did not report current OAT in all subsequent records were defined as discontinued, and those with current OAT at all subsequent records were defined as retained. Predictors of discontinuation included self-reported demographic (sex, location, Indigenous status) and drug use characteristics (drug last injected, frequency of injection). FINDINGS: Just fewer than one-third of respondents (29%) reported an OAT discontinuation event. The crude discontinuation rate was 6.3 [95% confidence intervals (CI) = 5.9-6.8] per 100 PYO. Discontinuation was significantly higher among respondents who reported last injecting pharmaceutical opioids [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.41-2.17, P < 0.001], being prescribed buprenorphine (aHR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.18-1.76, P = 0.001) or buprenorphine-naloxone (aHR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.20-2.34, P = 0.002), daily or more frequent injection (aHR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.23-1.85, P < 0.001), recent public injecting (aHR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.17-1.60, P < 0.001), incarceration in the previous 12 months (aHR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.05-1.64, P = 0.017), recent receptive syringe or injection equipment sharing (aHR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.10-1.48, P = 0.001) and male sex (aHR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.09-1.47, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: People who inject drugs attending needle-syringe programmes in Australia appear to be significantly more likely to discontinue opioid agonist treatment if they were prescribed buprenorphine or buprenorphine-naloxone compared with methadone, are male or report injection risk behaviours and recent incarceration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".