Semi-annual, annual and Universal Time variations in the magnetosphere and in geomagnetic activity: 2. Response to solar wind power input and relationships with solar wind dynamic pressure and magnetospheric flux transport
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This is the second in a series of papers that investigate the semi-annual, annual and Universal Time ( UT ) variations in the magnetosphere. We present a varied collection of empirical results that can be used to constrain theories and modelling of these variations. An initial study of two years’ data on transpolar voltage shows that there is a semi-annual variation in magnetospheric flux circulation; however, it is not as large in amplitude as that in geomagnetic activity, consistent with the latter showing a non-linear (quadratic) variation with transpolar voltage. We find that during the persistent minimum of the UT variation in geomagnetic activity, between about 2 and 10 UT , there is also a persistent decrease in observed transpolar voltage, which may be, in part, caused by a decrease in reconnection voltage in the nightside cross-tail current sheet. We study the response of geomagnetic activity to estimated power input into the magnetosphere using interplanetary data from 1995 onwards, an interval for which the data are relatively free of data gaps. We find no consistent variation in the response delay with time-of-year F and, using the optimum lag, we show that the patterns of variation in F -year spectrograms are very similar for geomagnetic activity and power input into the magnetosphere, both for average values and for the occurrence of large events. The Russell–McPherron (R–M) mechanism is shown to be the central driver of this behaviour. However, the (R–M) effect on power input into the magnetosphere is small and there is a non-linear amplification of the semi-annual variation in the geomagnetic response, such that a very small asymmetry in power input into the magnetosphere P α between the “favourable” and “unfavourable” polarities of the IMF B Y component generates a greatly amplified geomagnetic response. The analysis strongly indicates that this amplification is associated with solar wind dynamic pressure and its role in squeezing the near-Earth tail and so modulating the storage and release of energy extracted from the solar wind. In this paper, we show that the equinoctial pattern is found in the residuals of fits of P α to the am index and that the amplitude of these equinoctial patterns in the am fit residuals increases linearly with solar wind dynamic pressure. Similarly, the UT variation in am is also found in these fit residuals and also increases in amplitude with solar wind dynamic pressure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".