Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis surveillance and cascade of care in Madagascar: a five-year (2012–2017) retrospective study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In Madagascar, the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) surveillance programme was launched in late 2012 wherein previously treated TB cases and symptomatic MDR-TB contacts (hereafter called presumptive MDR-TB cases) undergo drug susceptibility testing. This retrospective review had per aim to provide an update on the national MDR-TB epidemiology, assess and enhance programmatic performance and assess Madagascar's MDR-TB cascade of care. METHODS: For 2012-2017, national TB control programme notification, clinical management data and reference laboratory data were gathered. The development and coverage of the surveillance programme, the MDR-TB epidemiology and programmatic performance indicators were assessed using descriptive, logistic and spatial statistical analyses. Data for 2017 was further used to map Madagascar's TB and MDR-TB cascade of care. RESULTS: The geographical coverage and diagnostic and referral capacities of the MDR-TB surveillance programme were gradually expanded whereas regional variations persist with regard to coverage, referral rates and sample referral delays. Overall, the rate of MDR-TB among presumptive MDR-TB cases remained relatively stable, ranging between 3.9% in 2013 and 4.4% in 2017. Most MDR-TB patients were lost in the second gap of the cascade pertaining to MDR-TB cases reaching diagnostic centres but failing to be accurately diagnosed (59.0%). This poor success in diagnosis of MDR-TB is due to both the current use of low-sensitivity smear microscopy as a first-line diagnostic assay for TB and the limited access to any form of drug susceptibility testing. Presumptive MDR-TB patients' sample referral took a mean delay of 28 days before testing. Seventy-five percent of diagnosed MDR-TB patients were appropriately initiated on treatment, and 33% reached long-term recurrence-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: An expansion of the coverage and strengthening of MDR-TB diagnostic and management capacities are indicated across all regions of Madagascar. With current limitations, the surveillance programme data is likely to underestimate the true MDR-TB burden in the country and an updated national MDR-TB prevalence survey is warranted. In absence of multiple drivers of an MDR-TB epidemic, including high MDR-TB rates, high HIV infection rates and inter-country migration, Madagascar is in a favourable starting position for MDR-TB control and elimination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".