A Study on the Largest Hydraulic-Fracturing-Induced Earthquake in Canada: Observations and Static Stress-Drop Estimation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT On 17 August 2015, an Mw 4.6 earthquake occurred northwest of Fort St. John, British Columbia, possibly induced by hydraulic fracturing (HF). We use data from eight broadband seismometers located ∼50 km from the hypocenter to detect and estimate source parameters of more than 300 events proximal to the mainshock. Stress-drop values estimated using seismic moment and corner frequency from single-event spectra and spectral ratios range from ∼1 to 35 MPa, within the typical range of tectonic earthquakes. We observe an ∼5-day delay between the onset of fluid injection and the mainshock, a b-value of 0.78 for the sequence, and a maximum earthquake magnitude larger than the prediction based on the total injection volume, suggesting that the Mw 4.6 sequence occurred on a pre-existing fault and that the maximum magnitude is likely controlled by tectonic conditions. Results presented here show that pre-existing fault structures should be taken into consideration to better estimate seismic hazard associated with HF operations and to develop schemes for risk mitigation in close proximity to HF wells.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".