An accumulation of climatic stress events has led to years of reduced growth for sugar maple in southern Quebec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Understanding the influence of climatic variation on forest dynamics is of great ecological and economic interest, and is essential to prescribe silvicultural interventions that will facilitate ecosystem acclimation to global change. However, the retrospective identification of climatic events responsible for the inter‐annual variation of tree growth is challenging, notably because both their duration and their subsequent effects can be highly variable in time. In this study, we aimed to (1) quantify empirically the effect of climatic stress events on the short‐ and long‐term growth dynamics of sugar maple trees; (2) compare the effects of different types of climatic events, that is, drought and thaw–freeze; and (3) compare the effects of climatic stress events to those of traditional monthly level climate metrics. To achieve this, we paired cross‐dated tree‐ring series to monthly and daily‐level climate metrics over more than 50 yr in two distinct regions of southern Quebec. While the analysis from monthly level metrics first suggested a weak and non‐stationary relationship between climatic conditions and tree growth, the analysis from daily‐level metrics showed that climatic stress events, and more particularly thaw–freeze events, were strongly related to the growth of sugar maple trees. Our results suggest that the synergic influence of cumulative climatic stress events, which was exacerbated by insect outbreaks during the early 1980s, induced an important shift in the growth dynamics of sugar maple and in its response to variation in climatic conditions. These results highlight the potential negative impact of global climate change on our capacity to predict stand productivity accurately, especially if climate‐sensitive growth models are based on projections of future monthly metrics. Because adverse climatic events are expected to increase both in frequency and in severity over the next decades, a general decrease in the growth rate of sugar maple is apprehended in southern Quebec.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".