Risk of fracture in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation initiating direct oral anticoagulants vs. vitamin K antagonists
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: To determine the risk of fracture associated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) compared with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), accounting for cumulative duration of use. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Quebec administrative healthcare databases, we formed a cohort of all patients aged 40 years or older newly diagnosed with NVAF, who filled a first prescription for DOACs or VKAs between 2011 and 2014. Exposure was modelled as a time-varying variable whereby patients were considered unexposed up to 180 days of cumulative duration of use (to account for a biologically meaningful exposure) and exposed thereafter. The final cohort included 10 306 new users of DOACs and 15 357 new users of VKAs. After propensity score-based fine stratification and weighting, use of DOACs for 180 days or greater was associated with a 35% decreased risk of fracture [crude incidence rates 7.5 vs. 15.3 per 1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.91] compared to VKA duration ≥180 days. Direct oral anticoagulants use was also associated with a lower risk of hip fracture (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.31-0.86) compared with VKAs. There was no difference in the rate of fracture for shorter duration of use (HR 1.10; 95% CI 0.79-1.53). The risk was not modified by age, sex, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, history of fracture or falls. CONCLUSION: Prolonged use of DOACs is associated with a lower risk of fracture compared with VKAs. These findings support the first-line recommendation for DOACs in patients with NVAF.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".