Modeling Climatic Influences on Three Parasitoids of Low-Density Spruce Budworm Populations. Part 1: Tranosema rostrale (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite their importance as mortality factors of many insects, the detailed biology and ecology of parasitoids often remain unknown. To gain insights into the spatiotemporal biology of insect parasitoids in interaction with their hosts, modeling of temperature-dependent development, reproduction, and survival is a powerful tool. In this first article of a series of three, we modeled the biology of Tranosema rostrale at the seasonal level with a three-species individual-based model that took into account the temperature-dependent performance of the parasitoid and two of its hosts. The predicted activity of the first adult parasitoid generation closely matched the seasonal pattern of attack on the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). The model predicted 1–4 full generations of T. rostrale per year in eastern North America. The generations were generally well synchronized with the occurrence of larvae of a probable alternate host, the obliquebanded leafroller Choristoneura rosaceana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), which could be used as an overwintering host. Spatial differences in predicted performance were caused by complex interactions of life-history traits and synchrony with the overwintering host, which led to a better overall performance in environments at higher elevations or along the coasts. Under a climate warming scenario, regions of higher T. rostrale performance were predicted to generally move northward, making especially lower elevations in the southern range less suitable.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".