Otolith Microchemistry of Common Carp Reflects Capture Location and Differentiates Nurseries in an Interconnected Lake System of the North American Midwest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Common Carp Cyprinus carpio is an invasive fish whose populations have grown to ecologically damaging levels in the North American Midwest. It has been shown that some shallow nursery habitats contribute disproportionally to population growth of Common Carp in interconnected Midwestern lake systems. The ability of managers to discriminate which shallow basins are producing Common Carp across these systems could increase the efficacy of management practices aimed at disrupting recruitment. We tested whether adult and juvenile Common Carp collected across an interconnected Midwestern lake system could be distinguished based on the concentrations of 11 trace elements measured in their otoliths using laser ablation and high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (n = 157). Elemental concentrations in water were also measured with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and found to differ among sites and between habitats, indicating that variation in otolith microchemistry was likely. Aluminum, barium, copper, iron, potassium, lithium, magnesium, sodium, phosphorus, and strontium in the edge region of otoliths differed significantly among Common Carp from all capture sites. Barium, iron, lithium, manganese, and phosphorus differed significantly among juvenile Common Carp from three nursery basins. Aluminum, barium, copper, iron, potassium, lithium, sodium, phosphorus, and strontium were significantly different between nursery and nonnursery habitats. We then investigated the ability to use these elemental otolith edge signatures to differentiate capture locations and distinguish between locations that are active and putative nursery habitats. Quadratic discriminant analysis could classify otoliths to collection site with an accuracy of 54%. Quadratic discriminant analysis had increased accuracy when restricted to juvenile Common Carp (76%) and when classifying Common Carp to nursery and nonnursery habitat types (87%). Further analysis of otolith and water microchemistry indicates temporal instability and suggests a need to collect a multiyear library of otoliths prior to utilization by managers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".