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Record W3082385914 · doi:10.1002/cjs.11569

A Gaussian alternative to using improper confidence intervals

2020· article· en· W3082385914 on OpenAlex
André Plante

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
venuePublished in a venue whose home country is Canada.

Bibliographic record

VenueCanadian Journal of Statistics · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicScientific Measurement and Uncertainty Evaluation
Canadian institutionsUniversité du Québec à Montréal
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMathematicsStatisticsMargin (machine learning)Bivariate analysisConfidence intervalGaussianCoverage probabilityMeasure (data warehouse)Confidence distributionDistribution (mathematics)Interpretation (philosophy)Applied mathematicsMathematical analysisComputer sciencePhysics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The problem posed by exact confidence intervals (CIs) which can be either all‐inclusive or empty for a nonnegligible set of sample points is known to have no solution within CI theory. Confidence belts causing improper CIs can be modified by using margins of error from the renewed theory of errors initiated by J. W. Tukey—briefly described in the article—for which an extended Fraser's frequency interpretation is given. This approach is consistent with Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability, in which a probability and an error measure obey the same axioms, although the connotation of the two words is different. An algorithm capable of producing a margin of error for any parameter derived from the five parameters of the bivariate normal distribution is provided. Margins of error correcting Fieller's CIs for a ratio of means are obtained, as are margins of error replacing Jolicoeur's CIs for the slope of the major axis. Margins of error using Dempster's conditioning that can correct optimal, but improper, CIs for the noncentrality parameter of a noncentral chi‐square distribution are also given.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.013
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.881
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.013
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.499
GPT teacher head0.424
Teacher spread0.074 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it