Cyclone activities as inferred from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) for 1836-2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Preliminary results obtained from tracking cyclones in the ensemble-average and individual members of the NOAA-CIRES-DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) ensemble for the period 1836-2015 will be presented. Comparison with tracking in the 20CRv2c ensemble-average series will also be shown. The results indicate that the 20CRv3 is an improvement in representing cyclone climate and variability compared to previous versions (20CRv2c or 20CRv2). However, as in previous versions, the 20CRv3 ensemble-average fields are too smooth to use for tracking cyclones and studying cyclone climate, especially for the period before 1960 for the NH and for the entire reanalysis period for the SH, and that there are still temporal inhomogeneity issues in the 20CRv3, especially in the SH and in the early period for the NH, due to the increases over time of observations available for assimilation. The improvements arise from the use of a higher model resolution and the assimilation of more observations. They include that the 20CRv3 ensemble shows cyclones of higher intensities and a higher number of deep cyclones (center pressure ≤ 960 hPa) in the Northern Hemisphere than the 20CRv2c counterpart. Historical trends of cyclone activity and their uncertainties will be discussed based on the results of tracking the individual members of the 20CRv3 ensemble, with the temporal inhomogeneity issues being taken into account.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".