Enriching the design of Alzheimer's disease clinical trials: Application of the polygenic hazard score and composite outcome measures
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Selecting individuals at high risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and using the most sensitive outcome measures are important aspects of trial design. METHODS: We divided participants from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative at the 50th percentile of the predicted absolute risk of the polygenic hazard score (PHS). Outcome measures were the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Schedule-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog), ADNI-Mem, Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR SB), and Cognitive Function Composite 2 (CFC2). In addition to modeling, we use a power analysis compare numbers needed with each technique. RESULTS: Data from 188 cognitively normal and 319 mild cognitively impaired (MCI) participants were analyzed. Using the ADAS-Cog to estimate sample sizes, without stratification over 24 months, would require 930 participants with MCI, while using the CFC2 and restricting participants to those in the upper 50th percentile would require only 284 participants. DISCUSSION: Combining stratification by PHS and selection of a sensitive combined outcome measure in a cohort of patients with MCI can allow trial design that is more efficient, potentially less burdensome on participants, and more cost effective.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.356 | 0.403 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".