Secular Changes in Mortality and Hospitalization over Time in People with Kidney Failure or Severe CKD as Compared with Other Noncommunicable Diseases
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Significance Statement Unlike other noncommunicable diseases such as coronary disease and cancer, few new effective treatments have been developed for kidney failure or CKD in recent years. This retrospective cohort study included 548,609 people in Alberta, Canada with an incident noncommunicable disease, including those with kidney failure on renal replacement (KF-RRT) or severe CKD, who were diagnosed in 2004 through 2015. The authors found that patients with CKD and KF-RRT experienced secular reductions in mortality and mean annual days in the hospital at 1 and 5 years comparable with those experienced by patients with other common noncommunicable diseases, including myocardial infarction, diabetes, and certain malignancies. This contradicts the commonly held perception that outcomes associated with CKD or kidney failure have improved more slowly than those for other major noncommunicable diseases. Background Few new treatments have been developed for kidney failure or CKD in recent years, leading to perceptions of slower improvement in outcomes associated with CKD or kidney failure than for other major noncommunicable diseases. Methods Our retrospective cohort study included 548,609 people with an incident noncommunicable disease, including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, various cancers, and severe CKD or kidney failure treated with renal replacement (KF-RRT), treated in Alberta, Canada, 2004–2015. For each disease, we assessed presence or absence of 8 comorbidities; we also compared secular trends in relative (compared to a referent year of 2004) and absolute risks of mortality and mean annual days in the hospital associated with each disease after 1 year and 5 years. Results Comorbidities increased significantly in number over time for all noncommunicable diseases except diabetes, and increased most rapidly for CKD and KF-RRT. Significant but relatively small reductions over time in the risk ratio of mortality at 1 year occurred for nearly all noncommunicable diseases. Secular trends in the absolute risk of mortality were similar; CKD and KF-RRT had a relatively favorable ranking at 1 year. Breast cancer, KF-RRT, diabetes, and colorectal cancer displayed the largest relative reductions in number of hospital days at 1 year. Significant absolute reductions in the number of hospital days were observed for both KF-RRT and CKD; the former had the highest absolute reduction among all noncommunicable diseases. Results were similar at 5 years. Conclusions We observed secular reductions in mortality and annual hospital days at 1 year and 5 years among incident patients with KF-RRT and severe CKD, as well as several other common noncommunicable diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".