Internal promotion and the Bosman ruling: Evidence from the English Premier League
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The analysis of English Premier League clubs' reliance on internal versus external sources for competitive game‐time opportunities to unproven players is motivated by relevant labour economics literature. Two uniquely created data sets are utilized to establish robust results supporting the notion that certain clubs' youth programmes provide greater first‐team playing time opportunities through internal sources. This information is further used to create a unique index for youth development reputation of the clubs. In addition to this index and the original data set, this paper creates a link between existing internal versus external hiring labour literature and a club's decision to give game‐time opportunities to new players externally or resort to their internal hiring. Foreign sourced players become more prevalent in the league after the Bosman ruling, and their probability of game‐time selection is positively correlated with club stature. Survival analysis results also establishes a presence of heterogeneity at the youth club level that signals differences in player career prospects generated by their youth training, which is supplementary to the number of opportunities given to youth players by these clubs. This model also shows that the Bosman ruling positively impacts the career duration of youth players as opposed to its negative effect on game‐time selection, which signals that even though competitive game‐time opportunities are more limited, the quality of internally sourced players is higher as a result of increased competitive pressures brought upon by the Bosman ruling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".