Range expansion of muskox lungworms track rapid arctic warming: implications for geographic colonization under climate forcing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rapid climate warming in the Arctic results in multifaceted disruption of biodiversity, faunal structure, and ecosystem health. Hypotheses have linked range expansion and emergence of parasites and diseases to accelerating warming globally but empirical studies demonstrating causality are rare. Using historical data and recent surveys as baselines, we explored climatological drivers for Arctic warming as determinants of range expansion for two temperature-dependent lungworms, Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis and Varestrongylus eleguneniensis, of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus), in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1980 through 2017. Our field data shows a substantial northward shift of the northern edge of the range for both parasites and increased abundance across the expanded ranges during the last decade. Mechanistic models parameterized with parasites' thermal requirements demonstrated that geographical colonization tracked spatial expansion of permissive environments, with a temporal lag. Subtle differences in life histories, thermal requirements of closely related parasites, climate oscillations and shifting thermal balances across environments influence faunal assembly and biodiversity. Our findings support that persistence of host-parasite assemblages reflects capacities of parasites to utilize host and environmental resources in an ecological arena of fluctuating opportunity (alternating trends in exploration and exploitation) driving shifting boundaries for distribution across spatial and temporal scales.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".