Hydraulic fracturing induced hybrid earthquakes in the Montney Basin, British Columbia, Canada may mark the transition from aseismic slip near the wellbore to seismic slip at greater distances
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seismicity related to fluid injection during unconventional oil and gas exploration has increased dramatically in North America in the last decade. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin experienced a significant increase in the number of M3+ earthquakes, including several M4+ associated with high-pressure stimulation during Hydraulic Fracturing (HF) activity. The vigorous seismic response to injection activity and low historical seismicity rates pose critical questions as to the triggering mechanism(s) and seismic hazard assessment in the affected areas. To monitor seismicity linked to injection, a dense local network of eight broadband seismic stations was installed in 2015 at distances of ~2 km around an active well pad with the purpose of monitoring seismicity prior to, and following, a HF well stimulation in the Montney Play in British Columbia, Canada. Here we present an earthquake source process study using observations from the local station network, and provide evidence for a slow-rupture seismic signal which may bridge the spectrum of fault slip rates from aseismic near the well bore, to typical seismic velocities at distances beyond ~1 km. Initial detection and relocation of seismicity between May 28 – October 15, 2015 yielded 350 well-constrained hypocenters of high-frequency events with a maximum magnitude of Mw 1.8 that resemble typical tectonically generated earthquakes. The detection procedure also yielded a total of 31 events with high-frequency (or broadband) onsets, that transition to protracted, low-frequency ringing relative to event magnitude, which we term hybrids. Both hybrid and high-frequency events occur at similar depths to the active well bore and at distances of ~1-2 km from injection stages, yet exhibit varying source characteristics in spite of their proximal source volumes. Hybrid waveforms are marked by broader P- and S-wave arrival pulse shapes, and spectral fitting suggests that the stress drop values are roughly an order of magnitude lower than high-frequency events, with average static stress drop values of 0.3 MPa and 4.9 MPa, respectively. We interpret wider phase arrival pulse widths and lower stress drop values as resulting from lower rupture velocities of hybrid events relative to high-frequency events. A dilatant strengthening effect would be expected in close proximity to the well bore, and near the hybrid sources, where material is weaker and pore pressures are elevated, which may result in slower rupture propagation when slip is initiated relative to further distances where material damage and pore pressure perturbation are both lower. Thus, hybrid earthquakes may mark regions where slip velocities transition from aseismic sliding directly next to the well bore, which has been observed in laboratory and meso-scale experiments, to typical seismic velocities at further distances. The size-duration scaling of the induced hybrids observed here also extends the scaling of slow earthquakes occurring in tectonic fault transition zones, and may provide the first observations to extend the scaling down to seismic moment values of ~1010.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".