Unusual drift behaviour of multi-year sea ice in the Beaufort Sea during summer 2018
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In summer 2018, thick sea ice blocked the mouth of the Amundsen Gulf (AG), Canada, obstructing shipping through the North-west Passage. This study analysed multi-year ice motion to investigate the source of this thick ice and the reasons for its unusual movement. For this purpose, a daily multi-year ice distribution product was generated by ice tracking using gridded daily sea-ice velocities (2003–2018) derived from the AMSR-E and AMSR-2 data. From autumn 2017 to summer 2018, the area of multi-year ice extended westward to the Beaufort Sea and then migrated towards the AG mouth. The primary cause of the unusual ice cover was anomalous AG-ward wind in September 2018. It is known that multi-year ice has become increasingly moveable over the past decades, as indicated by the increasing wind factor (i.e., ratio of ice-drift speed and wind speed), but the unusual ice motion in the summer of 2018 cannot be explainable by the wind factor alone. Accurately, predicting monthly wind and monitoring old thick ice will reduce the risk posed by thick Arctic sea ice to shipping.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".