Life prediction for aircraft structure based on Bayesian inference: towards a digital twin ecosystem
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nowadays, the concept of “digital twin” has received great attention from both academia and industry. However, few methodological solutions have been reported in existing studies. This paper presents a life prediction method for aircraft structure, and illustrates how this method can be embedded into a “digital twin” framework. This method can fuse heterogeneous information acquired from inspected physic entity, fifinite element software, historical database and predictive model, giving an accurate and real-time prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) for aircraft structure. In the operation of this method, the degradation behaviour of inspected structure is observed in an online manner. Historical record document is used for generating prior knowledge. The external load condition is fed into fifinite element software for calculating the stress intensity factor. The well-known Paris law is adopted as predictive model. Finally, the Bayesian inference is used to integrate the information and predict the future degradation of inspected structure. Theoretical deviation and experiment on a public database demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, facilitating the implementation of “digital twin” in real-world scenario.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".