Adverse Effects of Low‐Dose Methotrexate in a Randomized Double‐Blind Placebo‐Controlled Trial: Adjudicated Hematologic and Skin Cancer Outcomes in the Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Low-dose methotrexate (LD-MTX), a cornerstone in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, is associated with a moderately increased risk of anemia, leukopenia, and skin cancers, but the risks of myelosuppression and malignancy during LD-MTX use remain incompletely described. We examined the risks of cytopenias and skin cancers among patients taking LD-MTX versus placebo in a large randomized controlled trial (RCT). METHODS: We prespecified secondary analyses of a double-blind, placebo-controlled RCT that included adults with known cardiovascular disease and diabetes or metabolic syndrome in the United States and Canada. Subjects were randomly allocated to LD-MTX (20 mg/week maximum) or placebo. All subjects received folic acid (1 mg daily for 6days/week). We assessed the frequency of blindly adjudicated hematologic and malignant adverse events (AEs). RESULTS: A total of 2391 subjects were randomized to LD-MTX (mean dosage 14.9 mg/week), and 2395 were randomized to placebo. During follow-up, in the LD-MTX arm, simultaneous two-line cytopenias (n = 92 [3.9%]) or pancytopenia (n = 13 [0.54%]) were infrequent. Pancytopenia developed as soon as 4 months and as late as 3.5 years after beginning LD-MTX, though the latter subject had been recently diagnosed with multiple myeloma. Overall skin cancer risk was increased in users of LD-MTX compared with users of placebo, which driven largely by a statistically significant increased risk of squamous cell skin cancer (hazard ratio [HR] 3.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63-6.71). Melanoma was increased in LD-MTX, but this was not statistically significant (HR 2.33; 95% CI 0.60-9.01). CONCLUSIONS: Among subjects using LD-MTX, simultaneous two-line cytopenias and pancytopenia were uncommon. We found more cases of skin cancer, particularly squamous cell carcinomas, in the LD-MTX arm than the placebo arm.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".