Temporal Associations between Community Incidence of COVID-19 and Nursing Home Outbreaks in Ontario, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The risk of nursing home COVID-19 outbreaks is strongly associated with the rate of infection in the communities surrounding homes, yet the temporal relationship between rising rates of community COVID-19 infection and the risk threshold for subsequent nursing home COVID-19 outbreaks is not well defined. This population-based cohort study included all COVID-19 cases in Canada’s most populous Province of Ontario between March 1-July 16, 2020. We evaluated the temporal relationship between trends in the number of active community COVID-19 cases and the number of nursing home outbreaks. We found that the average lag time between community cases and nursing home outbreaks was 23 days for Ontario overall, with substantial variability across geographic regions. We also determined thresholds of community incidence of COVID-19 associated with a 75% probability of observing a nursing home outbreak 5, 10 and 15 days into the future. For the province overall, when daily active COVID-19 community cases are 2.30 per 100,000 population, there is a 75% probability of a nursing home outbreak occurring five days later.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".