Value-driven Hindsight Modelling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Value estimation is a critical component of the reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm. The question of how to effectively learn predictors for value from data is one of the major problems studied by the RL community, and different approaches exploit structure in the problem domain in different ways. Model learning can make use of the rich transition structure present in sequences of observations, but this approach is usually not sensitive to the reward function. In contrast, model-free methods directly leverage the quantity of interest from the future but have to compose with a potentially weak scalar signal (an estimate of the return). In this paper we develop an approach for representation learning in RL that sits in between these two extremes: we propose to learn what to model in a way that can directly help value prediction. To this end we determine which features of the future trajectory provide useful information to predict the associated return. This provides us with tractable prediction targets that are directly relevant for a task, and can thus accelerate learning of the value function. The idea can be understood as reasoning, in hindsight, about which aspects of the future observations could help past value prediction. We show how this can help dramatically even in simple policy evaluation settings. We then test our approach at scale in challenging domains, including on 57 Atari 2600 games.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".