Potential Risk Levels of Invasive Fire Blight in Apple Orchards Around the World
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fire blight, a disease of apple trees caused by Erwinia amylovora, occurs worldwide except in South America, South-Central Africa, and most of Oceania. Ecological niche models can determine the potential distribution of species and measure the risk of pest invasion. This study aims to develop global climate suitability models using MaxEnt software for E. amylovora and to determine the regions in which apple cultivation and the bacterium are most likely to co-occur. Most occurrence data for E. amylovora (93%) are from the northern hemisphere, distributed between 63.90 to 14.56 degree days in regions of Africa, Central America, North America, Asia, and Europe. The only country in the southern hemisphere that this bacteria has been detected is New Zealand (Oceania). Apples are cultivated on every continent except Antarctica, between 61.55 to 44.41 degree days. We find that regions of South-Eastern Africa, Argentina, Australia, Southern Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, China, the United States, Madagascar, Morocco, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Tunisia, Uruguay, and the majority of Europe are suitable for both E. amylovora and apple cultivation. These results provide information on the potential worldwide distribution of E. amylovora in apple production area.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".