Predictive inference for travel time on transportation networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent statistical methods fitted on large-scale GPS data can provide accurate estimations of the expected travel time between two points. However, little is known about the distribution of travel time, which is key to decision-making across a number of logistic problems. With sufficient data single road-segment travel time can be well approximated. The challenge lies in understanding how to aggregate such information over a route to arrive at the route-distribution of travel time. We develop a novel statistical approach to this problem. We show that, under general conditions and without assuming a distribution of speed, travel time divided by route distance follows a Gaussian distribution with route-invariant population mean and variance. We develop efficient inference methods for these parameters and propose asymptotically tight population prediction intervals for travel time. Using traffic flow information, we further develop a trip-specific Gaussian-based predictive distribution, resulting in tight prediction intervals for short and long trips. Our methods, implemented in an R-package,1 1 Available at https://github.com/melmasri/traveltimeCLT. are illustrated in a real-world case study using mobile GPS data, showing that our trip-specific and population intervals both achieve the 95% theoretical coverage levels. Compared to alternative approaches, our trip-specific predictive distribution achieves: (a) the theoretical coverage at every level of significance, (b) tighter prediction intervals, (c) less predictive bias, and (d) more efficient estimation and prediction procedures. This makes our approach promising for low-latency, large-scale transportation applications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.055 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".