Identification of a Transcriptomic Prognostic Signature by Machine Learning Using a Combination of Small Cohorts of Prostate Cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Determining which treatment to provide to men with prostate cancer (PCa) is a major challenge for clinicians. Currently, the clinical risk-stratification for PCa is based on clinico-pathological variables such as Gleason grade, stage and prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels. But transcriptomic data have the potential to enable the development of more precise approaches to predict evolution of the disease. However, high quality RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) datasets along with clinical data with long follow-up allowing discovery of biochemical recurrence (BCR) biomarkers are small and rare. In this study, we propose a machine learning approach that is robust to batch effect and enables the discovery of highly predictive signatures despite using small datasets. Gene expression data were extracted from three RNA-Seq datasets cumulating a total of 171 PCa patients. Data were re-analyzed using a unique pipeline to ensure uniformity. Using a machine learning approach, a total of 14 classifiers were tested with various parameters to identify the best model and gene signature to predict BCR. Using a random forest model, we have identified a signature composed of only three genes (JUN, HES4, PPDPF) predicting BCR with better accuracy [74.2%, balanced error rate (BER) = 27%] than the clinico-pathological variables (69.2%, BER = 32%) currently in use to predict PCa evolution. This score is in the range of the studies that predicted BCR in single-cohort with a higher number of patients. We showed that it is possible to merge and analyze different small and heterogeneous datasets altogether to obtain a better signature than if they were analyzed individually, thus reducing the need for very large cohorts. This study demonstrates the feasibility to regroup different small datasets in one larger to identify a predictive genomic signature that would benefit PCa patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".