The Alcohol-Attributable Burden of Disease in Canada from 2000 to 2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Objectives: To describe trends in Canada in alcohol consumption from 1990 to 2016, and in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease from 2000 to 2016. Methods: Alcohol consumption was measured using data from production and taxation statistics and from population surveys. Alcohol-attributable deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) lost were estimated using a comparative risk assessment framework, stratified by age, sex, and cause. Relative risks were obtained from meta-analyses and cohort studies. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization's Global Health Observatory. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated using Monte Carlo-like simulations. Results: From 1990 to 2016, per capita alcohol consumption in Canada decreased from 10.4L (95% UI: 10.0–10.7) to 9.0L (95% UI: 8.7–9.2). Heavy episodic drinking remained largely stable between 1990 and 2016 (an annualized 0.1% increase). In 2016, 10,556 deaths (95% UI: 8285–13,609) and 440,709 DALYs lost (95% UI: 388,853–527,260) were attributable to alcohol use. Men experienced more alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs lost than did women, and the greatest alcohol-attributable burden was found among those over the age of 54. Alcohol-attributable age-standardized rates of deaths and DALYs lost decreased by 18.7% (95% UI: −10.2 to 25.2) and by 13.8% (95% UI: –11.4, 15.7), respectively, from 2000 to 2016. Conclusions: Despite reductions in per capita consumption and in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease, alcohol use continues to be a leading risk factor for death and disability in Canada. Accordingly, alcohol control policies should be strengthened to reduce further alcohol-attributable harms. Objectifs: Décrire les tendances de la consommation d’alcool au Canada de 1990 à 2016 et du fardeau de la maladie attribuable à l’alcool de 2000 à 2016. Méthodes: La consommation d’alcool a été mesurée à l’aide de données provenant de statistiques de production et de taxation et données d’enquêtes sur la population. Alcohol-attributable deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) - les années de vie ajustées par les décès et les cas d’invalidités attribuables à l’alcool- perdues ont été estimés à l’aide d’un cadre d’évaluation comparatif des risques, et stratifié par âge, sexe et cause. Les risques relatifs ont été obtenus à partir de méta-analyses et d’études de cohorte. Les données sur la mortalité ont été obtenues auprès de l’Observatoire mondial de l’Organisation mondiale de la santé. Les intervalles d’incertitude (UI) ont été estimés à l’aide de simulations de type Monte Carlo. Résultats: De 1990 à 2016, la consommation d’alcool per capita au Canada est passée de 10,4 L (95% UI: 10.0, 10.7) à 9,0 L (95% UI: 8.7, 9.2). La consommation épisodique excessive est restée largement stable entre 1990 et 2016 (une augmentation annualisée de 0.1%). En 2016, 10 556 décès (95% UI: 8 285, 13 609) et 440 709 DALYs perdus (95% UI: 388 853, 527 260) étaient attribuables à la consommation d’alcool. Les hommes ont connu plus de décès et de DALYs perdus attribuables à l’alcool que les femmes, et le fardeau le plus lourd attribuable à l’alcool a été constaté chez les personnes de plus de 54 ans. Les taux de décès normalisés selon l’âge attribuables à l’alcool et de DALYs perdus ont diminué de 18,7% (95%UI: -10.2, 25.2) et de 13,8% (95% UI: -11.4, 15.7), respectivement, de 2000 à 2016. Conclusions: Malgré les réductions de la consommation per capita et du fardeau de la maladie attribuable à l’alcool, la consommation d’alcool continue d’être l’un des principaux facteurs de risque de décès et d’incapacité au Canada. En conséquence, les politiques de contrôle de l’alcool devraient être renforcées afin de réduire davantage les méfaits attribuables à l’alcool.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".