An Observational History of the Direct Influence of the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation on the Tropical and Subtropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The history of observational studies regarding the influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is reviewed. QBO phases of westerly (QBO W) and easterly (QBO E) winds are defined in the lower stratosphere. During 1960–1978, radiosonde data revealed QBO modulation of the UTLS with a warm anomaly during QBO W in the tropics and cool anomalies near 30°S and 30°N. This pattern agreed with theory of the QBO mean meridional circulation (MMC), which predicted a coherent, antiphased response between the tropics and subtropics. During 1978–1994, satellite observations of aerosol and temperature confirmed the existence of the QBO MMC. During 1994–2001, global data sets enabled analysis of zonal mean QBO variations in tropopause temperature. In 2001, National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalyses for the 42-yr period 1958–2000 revealed seasonal and geographical variations in QBO W–E tropopause temperature, pressure, and zonal wind, which are presented here. An update using the 38-yr Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2, and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data sets provides a more complete view of seasonal and geographical variation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".