Incidence and risk of short episodes of atrial fibrillation detected with 14 days of continuous electrocardiographic monitoring
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background There is widespread interest in population-based screening for atrial fibrillation (AF). However, there is debate regarding the optimal screening method and duration. Objectives To estimate the incidence of short-duration AF detected by a single continuous 14-day electrocardiographic (ECG) monitor in older individuals without prior AF and to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism associated with these episodes. Methods Pacemaker and defibrillator electrograms were reviewed from a cohort of individuals ≥65 years old, with a history of hypertension, but no prior AF. For each participant, we simulated a continuous 14-day ECG monitor by randomly selecting a 14-day window in the 6 months following enrolment and measured the total AF burden during that period. We repeated random sampling 1000 times to ensure a robust estimate of the likelihood of capturing AF in a single 14-day period. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for CHA2DS2-VASc score to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism associated with different burdens of AF. Results Among 2470 participants with at least 6 months of follow-up, the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4.0±1.3. The proportion of participants with an AF burden of >6 min on a single 14-day monitor was estimated as 3.1%, while the proportion with burdens of >15 min and >30 min were 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Over a mean follow-up of 2.5 years, 44 participants had an ischemic stroke or systemic embolism; the rate among patients with an AF burden ≤6 mins was 0.70%/year. An AF burden >6 min was associated with an increased risk of stroke or systemic embolism (2.2%/year, HR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3–5.7), as were burdens >15 min (2.4%/year; HR 3.3; 95% CI 1.4–6.4) and >30 min (2.6%/year HR 3.5; 95% CI 1.5–6.7). Conclusion Approximately 3% of individuals aged 65 years and older and with hypertension may have previously undiagnosed asymptomatic AF detected by a single 14-day continuous ECG monitor. As little as 6 minutes of AF may be associated with an increased risk of stroke. Randomized clinical trials are required to definitively assess screening in this population. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".